TRANSFORMATION IS CHANGE: THE 2015 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. By King Akan

The 2015 Presidential election might be weeks behind us but let’s take a journey back into time and unearth the salient moments of the elections.
The election was keenly contested by the incumbent, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC). That is not to say that there were no other parties involved, as a matter of fact 14 political parties contested the elections. However, PDP and APC were the main contenders because of their followership and the popularity of their candidates. For the incumbent it was a mission to secure a second tenure having come into power through the 2011 elections. For the challenger, it was a fourth time knocking in this democratic dispensation having contested in the 2003, 2007, 2011 elections respectively.

The pre-election months and days were characterised by propaganda, provocative statements, and intrigues. There was the case of the missing WAEC certificate of the APC candidate, the labelling of the APC Presidential candidate as ‘brain-dead’ by the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan and many more. The 2015 elections had all the elements of a great movie; conflict, suspense and a very twisted plot.

The challenger and now President-elect centred his campaign message on CHANGE, promising to fight against corruption, create jobs, and provide better security while the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan centred his campaign message on TRANSFORMATION. A transformation which his party claimed was necessary for the growth of the country. But as the polls revealed the people needed change more than transformation. The Peoples Democratic Party popularly known as the PDP had been in power since the country made the transition from military to democratic rule in 1999. Despite recording improvements in the communication sector, the agricultural sector, trade and investments, and road construction, their reign has been characterised by excessive corruption, inability to provide the people with basic amenities, and a high level of poverty.

Over the sixteen years of rule, PDP had grown to become one of, if not the most influential and popular party in Africa with a large membership and followership. It is also on record that they claimed that they would rule for 60 years. Well, they were on their way to make two decades of rule if they had won the 2015 Presidential elections.

The elections were initially scheduled to hold on February 14 but the government postponed the elections for six weeks due to military operations in some states in the North-east against Boko Haram; the terrorist group popular and unpopular for abducting the Chibok girls and accounting for several deaths in the country in the last five years. The new date for the Nigerian presidential elections was announced as Saturday, March 28, however, voting was extended in some states to Sunday, March 29, because of technical glitches. There were cases of late arrival of electoral materials, rain, violence, delays in several polling units as a result of failures of some card readers introduced to ensure a freer and fairer election. The President and the First Lady, Patience were among those whose cards failed and had to make do with manual accreditation. We will save the card reader faux pas for another day.

After two days of voting and few days of collating, on Tuesday, March 31, the Chairman of the Independent National Elections Commission (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega announced the complete results. All along there was suspense in the air, election results announced on the 29th of March revealed that Buhari was leading. A lead which he maintained until the final results were announced. Despite this knowledge of the challenger’s lead, there was always a room to accommodate the spectacular although it never came. Hours before the election results were announced, there were rumours of President Jonathan calling Buhari to congratulate him on his victory. Regardless of the incumbent’s now famous call, the nation and avid followers of the elections around the world waited to hear the results from the INEC Chairman himself. You can agree that suspense was the most popular element in the 2015 general elections. Buhari won the elections with 15,424,921 votes while Jonathan had 12,853,162 votes. A margin of over 2.5 million votes.

There were protests against irregularities in voting and violence recorded in a few states; Rivers, Imo, and Bauchi respectively but in general the elections can be adjudged to be free and fair and easily the freest and fairest election ever conducted in the history of Nigeria. An election which reflected the voice of the people. The results however reveal that in Nigeria elections are no longer rigged at the ballot box but rather at the collation centers.

Many predicted the post-election days to be tense and saddled with unrest and violence but that one act of the President went a long way to dissuade angry supporters of the ruling party to initiate any form of violence. So far, the post-election atmosphere has been peaceful. This post-election fears were created by threats of the APC establishing a parallel government in a case that they lost, and also threats of Jonathan supporters in the oil producing states to renew attacks on the oil infrastructure if the incumbent lost. Should we worry less now? Too early to celebrate but we hope all parties accept the results in good faith.

The significance of the results presents many ‘firsts’ in Nigerian politics. This is the first time an incumbent would lose a Presidential election, this is the first time the people’s vote counted, and this is the first time a loser would do the humble, noble and graceful act of congratulating an opponent for winning an election. The President’s noble act embodies a paradigm shift in Nigerian politics and African politics in general because Africa is a continent popular for leaders who never want to leave political office. Kudos to the President, the President-elect, the Chairman of INEC and the great people of Nigeria for the tremendous outcome of the elections.

For some they believe that democracy in Nigeria and Africa at large has come of age, others simply regard the victory of the APC as a belief that when the people desire change they can achieve that through the polls. However, the 2015 Presidential elections has given democracy in Africa a new face and we only hope that the same can be seen in the aspect of ideology. In the pre-election and post-election periods we have seen a deluge of politicians changing political parties like children playing with a light switch.

Furthermore, the results show that there still exists a pattern of voting which is in regional and religious lines. Buhari who is a Northerner and a muslim won in the North-west, North-east and South-west, while Jonathan who is a Southerner and a Christian won in the South-south and South-east. The two candidates shared the votes from the North-central which has a fair share of Christian and Muslim populations. For a country like Nigeria where the electorate’s choice hinges on several factors; ethnic, regional and religion, a candidate needs to win more than 50 percent of the total votes nationally, and take at least 25 percent of the vote in two thirds of the states to be crowned winner, having satisfied the expectations of the law Buhari is now President-elect and by May 29th, 2015 will assume the role of President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Many lessons learnt; don’t give up on your dreams, do the most you can when given an opportunity and finally if you are contesting a Presidential election adopt ‘change’ as your campaign slogan (Laughs). Well, on a serious note, in 2008 the Obama campaign message was CHANGE, seven years later Buhari picks up the CHANGE ticket and also emerges winner. Both cases against all odds.

In summary, the 2015 Presidential elections gave us all the elements of a classic movie and cries for a sequel will only be entertained in four years’ time because of the President’s noble act of surrender. At the moment the only transformation that can be witnessed is change.